This article concerns the relation between total EV and actual profit over a period of time over many offers. This is often a subject that is misunderstood and perhaps over simplified, the short story is there is a clear link between the EV you take from casino offers and your actual profit but its not as simple as is often implied.
Probably the most common reasoning heard for the relation between the 2 is that it can be thought of as one giant offer where the EV is the total EV you have taken and the result of this offer is your total profit. This kind of works when looking at the numbers but not so much when you think about how every single offer you complete is its own entity. Offer B has no relationship with offer A so how can the results be averaged together?
A huge amount of confusion comes from the belief that EV is somehow 'banked' if you finish below EV on an offer and that you are owed that EV by a future offer in the form of profit. Unfortunately this is not the case; once you have finished an offer that EV has gone forever! You may finish above EV on a future offer but that is not previous EV paying its dues, rather you landing on the kind side of variance for that one.
Conversely if you finish an offer way above EV you are not destined to be taken back down to EV so somebody that wins a £10,000 jackpot on their first casino offer is safe... they will just be £10,000 above EV on average from there on.
Yet another common misconception is that completing more offers reduces variation between EV and profit when quite the opposite is true. With this knowledge that every single offer you complete is independent of the last and no EV is 'owed' to you we need to talk about how the variance of each casino offer you complete will actually make your profit stray further away from EV.
Lets use some easy figures for this demonstration and with the same 'offer' each time... an offer with an EV of £10 and a variation in the actual profit of +/- £100.
You can see that as we complete more offers (the horizontal axis), our collected EV is increasing steadily as is the range in where our actual profit could be. The general trend of both EV and profit will be approximately the same over a long enough period of time but the variance increases massively. For example after 10 of these offers we could be anywhere from -£216 to +£416, after 100 £0 to +£2,000, after 500 +£2,763 to +£7,236 and after 1,000 +£6,837 to +£13,162!
Now confusingly even though the monetary range increases massively, that range actually gets smaller in relation to the total EV as we complete more offers. Using the same figures as above; after 10 offers we could be within £632 (£316 either side) of EV or 6.3%, after 100 within £2000 or 2%, after 500 within £4,472 or 0.89% and after 1000 within £6,324.56 or 0.63%.
This is by far the hardest part of casino to understand so don't worry if this doesn't all make sense. There are plenty of people that have successfully earnt from casino offers for years that either haven't thought in depth about this or just don't understand. The reality is it doesn't matter and understanding this concept will not make you more or less money.