It is important to understand that it is not always possible to increase the EV of an offer, this is true in the case of any offer where everybody will complete the wagering every time. For example any wagering of your own cash and post wager bonuses. Although with these types of bonuses we can increase the hourly rate or decrease bust rates (but not both).
So this leaves us with offers that do involve wagering and the way we increase EV of these offers is perhaps a little counter intuitive... we need to make ourselves bust out of more offers and faster!
We do this by increasing our stake sizes or playing a higher variance game and its obvious why this would increase EV right? You bust out more often but when you do win, you win a lot more which more than makes up for the increased bust rate... Unfortunately not; one of the first things we learn about RTP is that it is unaffected by these things so why would the EV (which is based on a huge sample size as with RTP) of an offer increase when we change those things? Over a long enough period of time a low variance slot will 'pay back' the same amount as a super high variance slot
This real reason is because whenever wagering during an offer you are subject to the slot or games house edge (remember this is the inverse of RTP). By increasing the amount we bust out, you will be wagering less and therefore the casinos edge will not take as much from you in 'profit'. We want to be wagering as little as possible on the occasions where we are going to bust out. Think of it the same as the EV difference in the same offer with 10x and 30x wagering, the estimated value of the 10x offer will be higher purely because you are subjected to less wagering and therefore the casino takes less of a cut. When using our EV Simulator pay attention when calculating these offers, you will notice that the link between EV and average wagering is clear and can be further demonstrated when you see the formula for calculating the EV of a cashable bonus: EV = Bonus Amount – (Average Wagering Completed x House Edge)
In these cases where we can increase EV by decreasing our average wagering you will also notice the side effect of the average time an offer takes decreasing which has an additional benefit to us, our effective cash per hour rate goes up.
Although in a lot cases you can increase the EV a great deal by decreasing your average wagering as much as possible, this also needs to be balanced with your personal tolerance to risk. Remember you are increasing your chances of busting and therefore more chance of losing runs. Although EV will always hold true over a long period of time, demoralising yourself with a massive losing streak will not do any favours and perhaps even encourage chasing losses.
Having access to an EV Simulator affords you the advantage of being able to play with how you approach a casino offer to best suit you. Rather that relying on a third party to calculate EV on your behalf, you are able to cater the offer to your risk and time thresholds. Each type of bonus should be approached differently:
The major exception to these rules are when there is a winnings cap in place, in such situations you will often find there is a 'sweet spot' where the EV peaks at a certain stake size.
Nothing can be done to increase the EV of the free spins themselves because they are worth a set amount but if the winnings have to be wagered then the same rules apply as with cashable and sticky bonuses.
Increasing EV of cashback offers will be all about finding the optimal profit target. Start with 2x deposit amount and tweak from there keeping in mind that increasing your profit target will also increase your bust chance. If wagering is required on the cashback then same principles as cashable/sticky bonuses apply.
As with free spins, it is not possible to increase the EV of these bonuses because the initial wagering to qualify for the bonus is of a fixed amount that everybody will complete. That said, you can lower the volatility (but increase the time taken and decrease cash per hour) by lowering stakes and/or variance.